{"id":113310,"date":"2026-06-17T08:52:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T01:52:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.itd.or.th\/?post_type=itd-data-center&#038;p=113310"},"modified":"2026-06-17T08:52:55","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T01:52:55","slug":"69_37","status":"publish","type":"itd-data-center","link":"https:\/\/www.itd.or.th\/en\/itd-data-center\/69_37\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Geopolitics and the Future of the Labor Market: An Inevitable Challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The persistent trade slowdown, driven by trade policy uncertainty and the energy crisis arising from instability in the Middle East conflict, compounded by <strong>the ongoing long-term structural transition of the global trading system, will inevitably exert a significant impact on the employment sector.<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The International Labour Organization (ILO) has developed a predictive model to illustrate the relationship between &#8220;trade policy uncertainty&#8221; and &#8220;labor returns.&#8221; <strong>The findings indicate that a certain increase in trade policy uncertainty could lead to a decline in labor returns and real wages for both skilled and unskilled workers across all industrial sectors.<\/strong> It is projected that regions heavily integrated into global supply chains are the most vulnerable to income losses; for instance, <strong>Southeast Asia could experience a reduction of up to approximately 0.45%, compared to around 0.3% in Europe and South Asia.<\/strong> Furthermore, such disruptions adversely affect the capacity of trade to generate new employment opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On a broader global scale, data reveals that <strong>in 2024, approximately 465 million jobs across 80 countries and districts relied on foreign demand through the export of goods and services, as well as interconnected supply chains.<\/strong> The Asia-Pacific region accounted for more than half of this figure, representing about 278 million jobs, followed by Europe and Central Asia at 96 million jobs. This clearly reflects the historical dynamics of global trade patterns and employment. Employment figures linked to trade contracted during the COVID-19 pandemic before subsequently rebounding, remaining relatively stable overall and accounting for approximately 15.3% of global employment in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, <strong>international trade is a highly significant driver for promoting &#8220;Decent Work,&#8221;<\/strong> which, according to the ILO, is defined as <em>&#8220;work that meets the aspirations of people in their working lives.&#8221;<\/em> This is particularly evident in low- and middle-income countries, <strong>where industrial sectors heavily linked to international trade typically show lower rates of informal employment, offer higher compensation, and provide greater employment opportunities for women and youth compared to sectors less reliant on foreign demand.<\/strong> Consequently, the deceleration of international trade growth and the disruption of global supply chain expansion have diminished opportunities for workers to transition into these high-performing sectors, thereby contributing to a slowdown in global decent work development indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among all trade-linked industries, <strong>the share of employment in the<\/strong> <strong>services sector<\/strong> <strong>has exhibited an accelerating growth trend, expanding from<\/strong> <strong>35.9% in 1995<\/strong> <strong>to<\/strong> <strong>48.6% in 2022<\/strong>. <strong>This aligns with the burgeoning importance of the services sector in international trade<\/strong>, which now constitutes approximately one-fourth of global trade value. <strong>One of the fastest-growing segments is &#8220;digital trade in service,&#8221; the value of which has more than doubled over the past decade, accounting for 14.5% of total global exports in 2024.<\/strong> These services include, online education, telemedicine and internet-based business services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, leveraging international trade to generate a greater volume of higher-quality jobs remains uneven. <strong>Most low-income countries continue to be isolated from cross-border trade and investment flows, particularly in technology-intensive services trade<\/strong>, such as accounting, insurance, or telecommunications services, due to trade restrictions and stringent regulatory barriers. Consequently, there is a profound risk that these nations will be left behind amid the ongoing global supply chain restructuring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">Author:<br>Mr. Atit Saerepaiboonsub<br>Senior Researcher<br>International Institute for Trade and Development (ITD)<br>www.itd.or.th<br>Publication: Bangkok BIZ Newspaper<br>Section: First Section\/World Beat<br>Volume: 39 Issue: 13181<br>Date: Wednesday, Jun. 10, 2026<br>Page: 8 (bottom)<br>Column: \u201cAsean Insight\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":501,"featured_media":113311,"template":"","categories":[35,29],"tags":[1550,1552,1551,816,1190,1553],"class_list":["post-113310","itd-data-center","type-itd-data-center","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-article-en","category-data-center-en","tag-challenge","tag-decent-work-en","tag-digital-trade-in-service-en","tag-geopolitics-en","tag-ilo","tag-labor-market-en"],"pp_force_visibility":null,"pp_subpost_visibility":null,"pp_inherited_force_visibility":null,"pp_inherited_subpost_visibility":null,"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - 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