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Recent environmental efforts appear to be intensifying, particularly following the advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which established the principle that states have obligations under treaty, customary law, and international human rights law to protect the climate and environment from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Breaching these obligations may lead to responsibility for cessation of actions or omissions, preventing their recurrence, and providing compensation to affected states.
Under the Paris Agreement, every five years (2020, 2025, 2030), each Party is required to submit its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reaffirm its climate mitigation targets and the actions planned to achieve them. These NDCs are then synthesized to assess the collective progress toward achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
The NDC Synthesis Report 2025, based new NDC data submitted this year between January 1 and September 30 from 64 countries, which representing 30% of global GHG emissions in 2019, estimates that adherence to the NDCs of these 64 parties will result in GHG emissions of approximately 13.0 (12.0–13.9) billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2035, a reduction of about 17% (11–24%) from 2019 levels.
ASEAN member states are elevating their NDCs by setting higher GHG reduction targets and implementing more rigorous mitigation or adaptation measures. For instance, Singapore aims for 45–50 million tonnes of GHG emissions in 2035; Malaysia plans to reduce emissions by 15–30 million tonnes compared to its peak emissions by 2035; and Thailand targets a 47% reduction in GHG emissions compared to 2019 and has accelerated its net-zero goal to 2050.
Many countries are not only enhancing their national efforts to reduce GHG emissions, but also implementing carbon pricing mechanisms and climate change mitigation measures that affect the entire supply chain. Examples include the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), and the Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) of the European Union.
However, the environmental efforts embodied in various measures appear to be falling short. Measures with trade-related mechanisms have had far-reaching effects on global commerce and exerted pressure on economic sectors, leading to opposition from various countries and stakeholders. This has resulted in the postponement of enforcement, amendments to certain provisions, and even the filing of disputes to the WTO, raising questions about the trajectory of these measures – both in terms of their stringency and implementation.
A significant contributing factor is the role of domestic and international politics in shifting the balance between economic and environmental priorities. For instance, changes in national governments can lead to shifts in environmental policies; political dynamics within the European Union influence the enforcement of environmental measures; and pressure from major economic powers—such as the United States under President Trump, who has expressed skepticism about global warming.
This deceleration is not limited to national or economic bloc measures. The decision on the Net-Zero Framework proposal by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), which includes a carbon pricing mechanism for maritime transport (accounting for 80% of all goods transport), was postponed by a year, despite being approved by the Marine Environment Protection Committee. This delay was due to pressure from countries including the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.
While environmental trends decelerate, the world faces increasingly severe environmental impacts daily. The UNEP’s Emission Gap Report 2025 indicates that global GHG emissions reached 57.7 billion tonnes in 2024, an increase of 2.3% from the previous year. The report also projects that if the current NDCs are fully implemented, global temperature rise will be between 2.3-2.5 °C. When considering current policies alone, the warming is projected to be 2.8 °C.
COP30, taking place from November 10–21, 2025, unfolds amid profound environmental challenges and mounting pressure from international policy and political dynamics. The global community’s collaborative efforts to resolve environmental issues are therefore under scrutiny to determine whether they can truly catalyze meaningful progress, or are merely destined to circle in place without real impact…because the world cannot afford to wait any longer.
Author:
Ms. Patcha Thamrong-ajariyakun
Senior Researcher
International Institute for Trade and Development (ITD)
www.itd.or.th
Publication: Bangkok BIZ Newspaper
Section: First Section/World Beat
Volume: 39 Issue: 13036
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025
Page: 8 (bottom-left)
Column: “Asean Insight”
