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In a time of global economic uncertainty, strategic foresight has become an important tool. It helps micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) decide how to survive and find new opportunities.
The digital economy in ASEAN is expected to reach USD 1 trillion by 2030. However, this growth also increases environmental impact through higher carbon footprints. Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise by 34–147% by 2040, which is a serious problem for a region that is highly vulnerable to climate change.
Because of this, the key focus of technology development over the next 10 years is the idea of “Twin Transition.” This means combining digital technology with environmental management. This approach can help reach Net Zero goals by using technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and blockchain.
By looking at Thailand’s situation through two main uncertainties, how capable businesses are at adopting Twin Transition technologies, and how strong the government’s commitment is to environmental rules, we can outline four main future scenarios.
The most desirable scenario is “Gateway to the Future.” This happens when businesses have strong capabilities and the government seriously supports green policies. In this future, MSMEs can improve efficiency by using digital process simulations, which reduce costs and mistakes. They can also more easily expand into international markets with strict environmental standards.
On the other hand, if the government enforces strict environmental rules but MSMEs lack the ability to adapt, the result is the “Big Players Dominate” scenario. Small businesses face very high compliance costs, which become a heavy financial burden. Large companies with more resources take over most of the market, and the gap in competition grows wider.
There are also scenarios with weak government support. One is “Dual Paths to the Future,” where MSMEs must rely on their own technology to stand out and enter global markets. The most fragile scenario is “Adaptive Resilience Amid Global Storms,” where both businesses and the government are unprepared. In this case, MSMEs must focus on niche markets or partner with large companies to share resources in order to survive.
To move toward a positive future, MSMEs need a smart strategy. This starts with choosing a specific area of expertise (smart specialization) to create strengths that are hard to copy. They also need smart operations by using AI and IoT to monitor energy use and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in production. This improves transparency and builds trust with modern consumers.
At the same time, the government needs to quickly build a supportive ecosystem. This includes setting up sandboxes where MSMEs can test Twin Transition innovations in a controlled environment. Many countries are using a “test before you invest” approach and offering financial support through matching funds or venture capital to reduce the risk of investing in advanced technology for small businesses.
In conclusion, thinking about future technology is not just about guessing what will happen. It is about preparing early and gaining an advantage as the world fully moves toward a green digital era.
Author:
Dr. Punrop Rajapongsa
Director, Office of Research Development and Promotion
International Institute for Trade and Development (ITD)
www.itd.or.th
Publication: Bangkok BIZ Newspaper
Section: First Section/World Beat
Volume: 39 Issue: 13081
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026
Page: 8 (bottom-left)
Column: “Asean Insight”
