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Recent changes in trade policies and import tariff rates in major economies during 2024–2026 signal a structural shift in the global trading system. The system is moving away from relatively uniform treatment under World Trade Organization most-favoured-nation (MFN) rules toward more differentiated tariff structures across countries and sectors. This shift generates gains and losses among exporters and reshapes competitive dynamics in global markets, as importers adjust sourcing toward suppliers facing relatively lower tariffs.
According to the Global Trade Update: February 2026 by UN Trade and Development, nearly two-thirds of United States imports were still subject to MFN or duty-free treatment in 2024, with average tariffs of around 2–3 per cent. Following recent tariff measures, average applied tariffs increased sharply to around 15 per cent, and by early 2026 only about 20 per cent of U.S. imports are expected to remain under MFN or duty-free regimes. This represents a clear move toward a more differentiated tariff structure shaped by reciprocal measures, bilateral arrangements, sector-specific policies, and targeted exemptions.
These changes do not simply raise overall tariff levels; they alter relative competitiveness across exporters. Non-uniform tariff increases create uneven market access conditions, meaning that exporters of the same product may face substantially different tariff burdens depending on their country of origin. Such tariff dispersion changes cost structures for importers and increases incentives for trade diversion toward suppliers with relatively more favourable tariff treatment.
For ASEAN economies, these developments are particularly important given the region’s strong dependence on exports. In agricultural products such as rice, where Viet Nam, Thailand, and Cambodia are key suppliers, differences in tariff increases in the U.S. market translate directly into different landed costs, even when product quality is comparable. These relative tariff differences can shift importers’ sourcing decisions and reallocate market shares among competing exporters.
In manufacturing sectors such as textiles and apparel, where Viet Nam and Cambodia are highly integrated into global supply chains, higher average tariffs combined with wide tariff dispersion allow importers to adjust sourcing more easily in response to changing costs. In electronics and machinery, where Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore participate in regional and global value chains, tariff changes can lead to a reallocation of orders across ASEAN members themselves. As a result, tariff differentiation affects not only overall export performance but also relative competitiveness within the region.
Most ASEAN economies are positioned mainly in intermediate stages of global value chains and are therefore highly exposed to uneven tariff structures. Evidence from the cocoa–chocolate value chain illustrates how tariff escalation can constrain value-addition opportunities. While raw cocoa beans typically enter the U.S. market duty-free, tariffs on processed chocolate products have increased and differ across exporters. This has made it more difficult for cocoa-producing countries, including Indonesia, to upgrade from raw material exports to higher value-added products, reinforcing existing patterns of specialization.
To respond to these challenges, ASEAN should strengthen cooperation under the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by developing regional mechanisms to systematically monitor tariff changes, tariff dispersion, and shifts in relative competitiveness in major partner markets. Joint assessments at the regional level would help identify sectors and products most exposed to changes in market access conditions.
At the same time, ASEAN should accelerate trade facilitation efforts, including deeper electronic customs integration and mutual recognition of standards, to reduce non-tariff trade costs. Lower non-tariff costs can partially offset the negative effects of higher and uneven tariffs in key markets. Stronger regional production integration would also help enhance ASEAN’s collective position in global value chains.
In addition, ASEAN should make strategic use of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and cooperation with external partners to diversify export markets away from excessive reliance on the United States. Promoting cross-border investment in digital industries, green technologies, and higher value-added downstream activities, alongside greater investment in technology, research and development, and international standards, would reduce dependence on tariff-sensitive intermediate production.
If ASEAN can pursue these policies in a coordinated and proactive manner, shifts in the global tariff structure need not be only a source of risk. Instead, they can be leveraged as an opportunity to strengthen the region’s resilience and upgrade its role in global value chains under increasingly differentiated trade regimes.
Author:
Ms. Namphueng Tassanaipitukkul
Senior Researcher
International Institute for Trade and Development (ITD)
www.itd.or.th
Publication: Bangkok BIZ Newspaper
Section: First Section/World Beat
Volume: 39 Issue: 13101
Date: Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2026
Page: 8 (bottom-left)
Column: “Asean Insight”
