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The New World Order: From a Bifurcated World to a Fragmented World

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Asean Insight

From a Bifurcated World to a Fragmented World

February 4, 2026

4 min read

Today’s polarization is far more complex than simple geopolitical rivalries. We are witnessing a transition from a ‘Bifurcated World’ toward a deeply ‘Fragmented World.’

Currently, the term ‘Bifurcated World’ is frequently used to describe the geopolitical rivalries between global superpowers like the United States and China. In reality, however, the world is facing a state of ‘Fragmentation’, where mutual trust among major powers has significantly eroded. The traditional rules-based global trade order is weakening, directly impacting international trade and shifting the era of Globalization toward ‘Deglobalization.’

“The era of trade liberalization is shifting toward a strategic pivot for domestic production and economic resilience.”

In the past, the global economy was primarily driven by the pursuit of GDP growth and the optimization of trade efficiency through liberalization. However, this paradigm has undergone a profound shift. Today, the focus is being replaced by the implementation of policies designed to protect and build domestic economic resilience.

According to the “Global Risks Report 2026” by the World Economic Forum (WEF), multilateralism is already in retreat. This decline is a result of diminishing mutual trust, reduced transparency, and a lack of respect for the rule of law.

Geoeconomic confrontation is identified as the paramount concern, followed by state-based armed conflict. Furthermore, economic downturn has emerged as one of the risks with the most substantial increase in severity scores compared to previous years.

Consequently, strengthening regional cooperation mechanisms, such as ASEAN, serves as a critical solution. By forging strategic alliances with other middle powers, the region can enhance its collective bargaining power to help shape common standards.

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